Despite a lot of political noise and further threats around tariffs, equity markets delivered strong returns in July. After several months of the dollar weakening versus sterling (and other major currencies), the US currency rebounded over the month, delivering additional returns to sterling investors. Global equities posted a sterling return of 5.7%, mainly driven by the US market which posted a healthy 6.9% return. All major equity returns posted positive returns, with the UK market +3.9%.
Markets demonstrated their ability to climb the “wall of worry” despite complex geopolitical tensions, trade policy developments and monetary policy uncertainty. They were buoyed by a successful US earnings season, with 80% of US companies beating consensus estimates. Major US banks did particularly well as, according to Morgan Stanley CEO, Ted Pick, corporate clients and boardrooms now “appear more accepting of ongoing uncertainty”. While on the trade policy front there were some major developments, with Trump’s administration agreeing deals with Japan, Europe and Vietnam, and a deal in principle with China, reduced fears of an escalating trade war. Trade uncertainty has driven volatility since the initial announcement on 2nd April. The average US tariff rate has risen to 18% from the 2% level on 1st April but markets responded positively with policy clarity, particularly after the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), which supported risk sentiment. It was a busy month from a legislative perspective with Trump also signing the cryptocurrency related GENUIS Act and three executive orders on AI as part of the US’s AI Action Plan.
The UK equity market delivered healthy returns, with the large cap section of the market (FTSE 100) leading the charge. A significant number of the index has global exposure so the strength of the dollar over the month contributed to performance.
While markets breathed a sigh of relief over tariff policy clarity, there were certain areas that were hit quite hard. Copper saw an intra-month fall over -20%, as Trump imposed a 50% tariff on certain copper products. As soon as July finished, we got to see the final (for now at least) tariff rates. Brazil, Canada and Switzerland were struck with particularly aggressive rates. Latin America’s largest country was given a 50% rate for purely political reasons as Trump retaliated over the charges facing his ally, the former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
With the market in “risk-on” mode and equities delivering positive returns, it was no surprise to see bond markets were generally flat over the month, with the exception being emerging market bonds finished up 5% – in keeping with the “risk-on” narrative.
Returns across asset classes have been positive so far this year and it’s reassuring to see diversification demonstrating its benefit to investors. However, looking forward there are a few things to note. Valuations in the US remain elevated and income growth is skewered in favour of a small number of ginormous firms.
There are no guarantees tariff dramas won’t return. All while potential macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical uncertainty are very much issues to be mindful of and underscore the need for effective diversification.